The Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency (ZimStat) with support from the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) has launched the key findings from three thematic reports produced from the Zimbabwe 2012 Census. The thematic report focusing on Nuptiality and Fertility provides a detailed analysis of data collected during the 2012 Census Report. The results of the 2012 Census were released in December 2013. The launch of this thematic report is the last specific objective of the 2012 Population Census of producing national population projections to enhance future planning. Statistics are a vital tool for economic and social development and reliable and timely data can help Zimbabwe in the formulation of development policies and programmes.
Zimbabwe has a keen and well-articulated interest and focus on population and development issues of which fertility is core. A deeper understanding of fertility, its levels, trends and determinants would no doubt enhance national planning programmes. Evidence from census data shows that Zimbabwean fertility is in transition. TFR as estimated from the 1969 census was 7.1, while that from the 1982, 92, 2002 and 2012 censuses was 5.6,
4.4, 3.6 and 3.7, respectively – an implied decline of about 1.9 births during the 20-year intercensus period of 1982-2012. Yet fertility data from ZDHS of 1984 (6.5) and 2010/11 (4.1) show a fertility decline of 2.4 children. However, it is important to note that census data generally underestimate fertility given the problems associated with retrospective data on fertility- memory lapse; and the use of proxies where the mothers are absent. Thus, one
cannot be certain as to the actual fertility levels and trends without undertaking some indirect estimation which would correct for some of such errors.
Data from the ZDHS surveys also show the general expected positive relationship between marriage and fertility during this period, however, the gap between fertility of married and single women is closing. These data raise more questions as to the actual levels and trends in fertility and one of its proximate determinant, nuptiality. Thus, this thematic analysis was a further analysis of the 2012 census with the view of providing more insights into fertility levels and trends in Zimbabwe. Using data for 2012 census, the specific objectives were to: assess nuptiality levels and trends; use indirect estimation techniques to estimate fertility; and, repeat the above analyses for 1992 and 2002 censuses in order to discern trends.
The findings show that marriage has generally increased; it is universal, with approximately 98% of both males and females marrying at some point in their lives. The proportion married increased most between 2002 and 2012; the increase was more for males. Women marry earlier than their male counterparts and this is largely because expected maturity at marriage for women is less demanding than that for males which includes work requirement and the acquisition of material goods. Worth noting is the increase is widowhood by about 81%, 51% for females and 11% for males during the 20-year inter census period. However, most of the increase was during the 1992-2002 inter census period, a time when the HIV and AIDS
pandemic was reigning havoc in Zimbabwe. Women are more likely to be single, this is largely because men tend to remarry soon after marriage dissolution, be it as a result of death of a spouse or divorce. Given that the proportion which is divorced and widowed increases with age unabatedly among women, this suggests that men who become single do not necessarily marry their age mates, but younger women some of who have never married. In turn, these implied high levels of re-marriage have serious implied negative implications on the spread of HIV.
There is no clear nuptiality pattern by district; however, one district is distinct among the rest, and this is Bulilimammangwe. Bulilimamangwe experienced the highest level of being never married among both males and females in 1992; and consistently the lowest level of marriage in both 1992 and 2012. Bulilimamangwe also has the highest level of widowhood for both males and females in 1992 and 2002.
An assessment of fertility data from the 1992, 2002 and 2012 censuses showed that data from all the three censuses do not have any significant flaws in reported parities. Thus, TFR estimated from the indirect estimation techniques show that TFR in 2012 was about 4, which is comparable to that from the ZDHS data. Hence, fertility declined between the 20-year inter-census period, from a TFR of about 4.7 in 1992 to about 4 in 2012. The decline in life time fertility among older women accelerated over the 20 year period while that of young women declined largely during the 1992-2002 inter census period, but receded during the 2002-2012 period. The increase in fertility among young women is consistent with the increase in marriage among young men during the same period. The increased marriage among males is paralleled by the increased fertility among young women given that the Zimbabwean culture equates marriage with reproduction. It is expected that once married, a woman must conceive immediately and bear a child or two before any contraceptive use. Or if an adolescent gets pregnant, she is expected to marry. Consistently, married women have higher fertility than all the other marital groups.
Fertility decline between the inter census period was more among women with no education compared to those with higher education; it was also more among rural women compared to urban women. The increase in fertility between 2002 and 2012 was more among the more educated and the urban residents. Yet fertility is generally lower among educated women compared to those with no education; it is lower among urban women compared to their rural counterparts. One can thus posit that the fertility decline was underlined not only by development; but also by lack of development. Development underlies fertility decline given that the educated and urbanized women are further ahead in the fertility transition with their
fertility lower than that of their uneducated and rural counterparts. However, the increase in fertility between 2002 and 2012 was higher among the educated and urban women compared to the uneducated and rural women, respectively, perhaps reflecting the delayed fertility during the 2007-2010 economic crunch. Given the stabilization of the economy with the dollarization of the economy, especially from 2010 to date, fertility then picked up, more for the modernized women who understand, and are more affected by economic swings.
Meanwhile, the less modernized women have been reducing their fertility as family planning became more acceptable, accessible and affordable starting from the establishment of the Zimbabwe national Family Planning Council after independence. And because of lack of development, both the less modernized and the modernized women reduced their fertility to levels which could be sustained in the ailing economy. The increase between 2002 and 2012 can be considered as temporary, simply a boom which is short term. Fertility is expected to stall at around 3 to 4 children at least for the next ten to twenty years given the socioeconomic context within which it is occurring.
Fertility in Zimbabwe still occurs too early and late in the lives of mothers granted the high fertility among adolescent women, and significant fertility beyond age thirty five. This partly contributes to the high maternal and infant deaths.